In the event of a Russian attack on a European country, the United States will not help Europe, or not enough, either because it will not want to assume its role as a NATO ally, or because 60% of the US Senate is needed to help. Candidate Donald Trump boasts that he won’t help European countries. During the Second World War, the USA only came to Europe’s aid when it was attacked by the Japanese. It never came to the aid of European countries simply because they were in trouble.
There is a real danger that Russia will attack the Baltic states, Poland and Finland. This would enable them to control access to the St Petersburg Sea between Helsinki and Tallinn, Russia’s most important port. It would also allow the reunification of Russia with the Kaliningrad enclave. A nationalist like Putin wants to reunite Russia. It wouldn’t be the first time.
The use of the leopard-skin strategy was initiated by Czar Alexander II 250 years ago, and it has always worked. It involves moving populations into the neighboring country when it invades a land, thus creating a minority. These minorities are treated better than the locals, so they are resented by the rest of the population. This allows the Russian army to say that this minority is being persecuted and that it has come to defend them.
Since 2014, the Baltic States have been de-Russifying. Statues have been dismantled. Russian-speaking TV channels and schools do no longer receive subsidies. Russian speakers who used to live in Finland no longer have the right to stay there. Over the past twelve months, Putin has been worried about a rise in persecution of these Russian minorities. What prevents him from invading them is that they are members of NATO. He just needs an opportunity.
Russia’s Fifth Column – Time: https://time.com/3616934/russias-fifth-column/
The American context is creating this opportunity, with the difficulties of passing the budget for aid to Ukraine and the fact that Trump could become President of the United States. For European countries, part of their prosperity has come from under-investing in their armies in the belief that the Americans would come to their aid.
Donald Trump says he would encourage Russia to attack Nato allies who pay too little:- The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/11/donald-trump-says-he-would-encourage-russia-to-attack-nato-countries-who-dont-pay-bills
The NATO treaty stipulates that the Allies must help each other, which the Americans no longer wish to do, and since 1949 the Allies have committed themselves to spending a minimum of 2% of national income on defense. The Europeans have rarely exceeded 0.5%, making them dependent on the Americans.
A European defense community is urgently needed.
Jean Monet, the founder of the European Union, always said that Europe needed prosperity and security. It was he who organized the creation of the European Defense Community on May 27, 1952. But it was not ratified, as not all countries, including France, signed
L’organisation de la défense européenne d’après-guerre (1948-1954): L’idée de la CED: https://www.cvce.eu/education/unit-content/-/unit/803b2430-7d1c-4e7b-9101-47415702fc8e/29a4e81c-c7b6-4622-915e-3b09649747b8
It’s high time to invest in and create a proper European defense capable of ensuring the security of its members.
